Texas continues to be one of the fastest growing states in the nation. Dr. Lloyd Potter, who has served as Texas State Demographer since 2010, says while growth brings opportunity it also creates pressure on resources like water, energy, and housing.
Potter, appointed by Governor Rick Perry, is a professor of demography at the University of Texas at San Antonio. He directs the Texas Demographic Center and co-directs the Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research.
Texas growth isn’t expected to stop, according to Potter, but the pace is expected to moderate. “In our most recent set of projections, we’re projecting that the growth will slow,” he says. Birth rates continue to decline across race and ethnic groups. “The slowing of our growth is largely because we’re anticipating the birth rates will continue to slow.”
Potter says the state is already feeling the effects of declining birth rates. “They’ve been having to close campuses or consolidate schools,” he says of the state’s K-12 schools. “You’re seeing that happen across the state.” He says migration has helped keep college enrollments steady, but a slowdown could eventually shrink the labor force. “If we don’t continue net flow of migrants into the state, conceivably we’ll see a contraction of the labor force, which will obviously have an economic impact.”
While water usage is a “significant issue,” according to Potter, he says that recent legislative sessions give him “a little more optimistic” outlook. Investments through the Water Development Board stabilize supply, but “infrastructure takes a long time—projects aren’t going to happen overnight.” He adds that industries—from data centers to manufacturing—depend on reliable water and power supplies.
Potter says fast-growing communities face overwhelming demand for schools, roads, and utilities. “Every one of those people that moves here needs a new housing unit. If you look at the places growing really fast, they can’t build schools fast enough.” Highway projects like the I-35 expansion through Austin will also mean long-term disruption. “Quality of life is definitely going to be impacted,” he says.
Migration, according to Potter, is the variable that’s “really difficult to predict” and is tied to economic opportunity and cost of living. Texas has been a destination for unauthorized immigrants, many of whom form a critical part of the labor force. “If we were to lose eight or nine percent of our labor force, that’s not insignificant,” Potter says, pointing to agriculture, construction, and hospitality as sectors especially vulnerable to labor shortages. Recent changes in federal methodology captured an influx of “humanitarian immigrants” seeking refugee status, but those numbers have slowed. “I would expect growth is likely to slow some here in the coming year as a function of that.”
Potter says Texas must stay focused on balancing growth with quality of life. “Growth is good, but if you grow too fast it impacts quality of life.”
Before his appointment, Potter studied under Steven Murdock, the state’s first demographer. “The state needed a state demographer,” he says. “I was qualified, and the University of Texas system put me forward.”
Potter says his team works closely with state agencies and the legislature, guiding decision-making. “A lot of our work is with the Department of Transportation, Workforce Commission, Water Development Board. They have a real need to understand both the current population as well as the forecast population.”
Trying to anticipate and get ahead of the infrastructure demand is the best strategy to ensure that we continue to have high quality of life in the state.”