In a recent episode of the Texas Talks podcast, House Public Education Committee Chairman Brad Buckley (R-Killeen) reports that the state’s traditional public schools saw an enrollment decline of approximately 76,000 students for the 2025–2026 school year. Attributing the drop to a combination of falling birth rates, housing affordability issues, and a surge in homeschooling and charter school enrollment, Buckley warned that current state funding formulas were not designed to accommodate such a structural shift in the student population.
The Big Picture
For the everyday Texas family, Buckley says the decline in enrollment is increasingly linked to the “Texas dream” of homeownership. Buckley noted that high property values in urban and suburban districts are preventing young families from moving in, causing neighborhood schools to age out as children are not replaced. From a “pro-taxpayer” and “pro-business” perspective, this shift challenges the efficiency of the state’s education budget, as districts face the “tough call” of school closures while maintaining high overhead for under-utilized facilities.
What Buckley Is Saying
- On Artificial Intelligence: “Quality learning takes place when a great teacher stands and delivers in front of kids and an engaging way,” Buckley stated during the podcast. He cautioned against AI-driven instruction: “If AI supports that, that’s one thing. But if AI drives that, that’s another”.
- On Testing Reform: Buckley highlighted the upcoming phase-out of the STAAR test, describing the replacement as “smaller tests… little bites for students” designed to provide real-time feedback and reduce the “anxiety” of a single high-stakes exam.
- On Declining Enrollment: Buckley described the 76,000-student drop as “concerning” because the state’s funding system is primarily built for growth, not contraction. He noted that while Education Savings Accounts (ESAs) are now being awarded, they are not a driver of this specific year’s decline as the program has not yet seated its first class.
By The Numbers
- 76,000: The number of fewer students enrolled in traditional Texas ISDs for the current school year.
- 5.5 Million: The approximate total number of students in the Texas public education system.
- 96,000: The number of students awarded an Education Savings Account (ESA), with 43% previously enrolled in public schools.
- 2027–2028: The school year the state plans to fully phase out the traditional STAAR test.
- 48 Hours: The target turnaround time for feedback under the new progress-monitoring assessment system.
The Dispatch Note
The House Public Education Committee is scheduled to hold its next interim hearing on June 1, 2026. Lawmakers will monitor the implementation of House Bill 2, the last session’s investment in public education, which included significant teacher pay raises. The committee will also begin examining “unfunded mandates” to determine if compliance requirements can be removed to allow teachers to focus primarily on classroom instruction.
Watch the full discussion here: Texas Schools, AI & the Future of Public Education