Policy analysts Ben Crockett and Hannah Bruck of the Texas Public Policy Foundation released a new report this month titled “Womb & Board,” which analyzes how housing affordability impacts family formation in Texas.
The report examines the correlation between rising housing expenses and the declining rates of marriage and childbearing among young adults. Housing costs, according to the report, are the primary structural constraint that determines whether young Texans can establish independent households.
The study further finds that the shortage of “starter homes” that are accessible and affordable for young families is contributing to delayed adulthood and lower fertility rates.
According to the research, the physical availability of more affordable and smaller, entry-level homes has plummeted over the last century as a result of zoning and land-use regulations. In the 1940s, nearly 70% of single-family homes were 1,400 square feet or less, but that figure has dropped to fewer than 8% today.
During this same period, the average household size in the United States decreased from 3.7 to 2.5 persons, yet home and lot sizes have grown significantly, which the authors identify as a primary factor driving up total costs. In Texas specifically, inflation-adjusted home prices surged from $33,113 in 1940 to $339,000 by 2024. This has resulted in a market where starter homes priced under $200,000 represent less than 1.7% of all homes for sale in the state, compared to 50% as recently as 2010.
The report further outlines how housing expenses represent the largest single component of childrearing, often exceeding the costs of food, childcare, and education. Consequently, non-homeowners in high-cost metropolitan areas demonstrate lower birthrates as financial barriers to parenthood increase.
To address these challenges, the authors advocate for regulatory reforms such as “light touch density” and the reduction of minimum lot sizes. Light touch density, which includes housing types such as duplexes, townhomes, and accessory dwelling units, is projected to add approximately 28,900 net new homes annually.
Reducing the state-mandated minimum lot size to 1,200 square feet could generate another 63,200 single-family homes per year at values roughly 13% below current medians.
Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis supports these findings, noting that the median sales price of houses sold in the United States remained elevated at $420,400 in the first quarter of 2024, maintaining a trajectory that has outpaced median income growth over the last decade (FRED, 2024).
“While cliché, it is a truism that families turn houses into homes; perhaps homes can help turn people into families,” the authors conclude.