A pair of West-Texas entrepreneurs are circulating findings from their research initiative focused on preventing school shootings and other forms of targeted violence, and are calling for a nationwide partnership among school districts, researchers, law enforcement agencies, and policymakers to build a more evidence-based approach to protecting students.
The project, detailed in a draft publication, “Risk Triage and Rapid Decision (RTRD) Field Manual,” combines data science, behavioral threat assessment, and policy analysis to identify warning signs associated with mass violence. The manual shows how the findings can help develop practical tools for schools and public officials.
Authored by Lewis Matthews and Ryan Bronaugh, the report argues that many school-safety policies are adopted without rigorous evidence regarding what actually prevents attacks. The researchers say their goal is to provide school leaders and policymakers with measurable, transparent evidence that can help identify risks earlier and intervene before violence occurs.
The authors compiled a database of hundreds of mass-violence cases and applied a statistical framework to evaluate warning behaviors that appear to be common before school shootings and other violence that result in deadly outcomes. The researchers used methods more commonly found in public-health and medical research, where randomized experiments are often impossible and policymakers must rely on observational evidence to make life-and-death decisions.
Schools as the Primary Focus
Although the framework is designed to address violence across communities, school shootings are given particular attention in the report.
Two major sections of the publication are devoted exclusively to schools. The chapters examine how warning signs move through school systems, how concerns are reported and evaluated, what obstacles prevent intervention, and which measures districts should track to determine whether prevention systems are functioning effectively. The report also examines behavioral threat assessment teams, mental-health supports, school climate, physical security, family engagement, and Texas school-safety policies.
The researchers argue that preventing school shootings requires more than hardening campuses. They advocate what they describe as a “layered” approach that combines early intervention, behavioral threat assessment, mental-health support, information-sharing, and targeted security measures.
“Schools need a quantified understanding of how violence develops and how intervention systems function,” the report states, emphasizing the need for prevention systems that identify and address warning signs before a crisis develops.
Early Findings and Cautions
The report presents four initial causal-effect estimates derived from 534 mass-violence cases. The findings focus on warning behaviors and indicators that may help explain why some attacks become more lethal than others. However, the authors caution that many of these findings should be viewed as early evidence rather than definitive proof that specific interventions will prevent future attacks.
The researchers stress the distinction between identifying warning signs and proving the effectiveness of a particular policy response. They argue that understanding this difference is essential for school officials and legislators seeking to make informed decisions about safety investments.
Call for Collaboration
A central message of the report is that substantially more research is needed before stronger conclusions can be drawn.
The authors say they are seeking partnerships with school districts, behavioral threat assessment teams, education agencies, and other researchers to gain more insight into practices that will prevent mass violence. They also are encouraging assistance from judges, law-enforcement organizations, and state governments that possess relevant records policy makers can use to improve school safety measures. They note in their report that access to case-level threat-assessment data could significantly improve the ability to determine which interventions actually reduce risk.
The report also calls for collaboration from academic researchers and data experts to review methods, validate findings, and help strengthen future phases of the project.
The Stakes for Students
The researchers argue that public debate about school shootings often stalls over political disagreements and rarely results in measurable prevention strategies.
Their objective, they write, is to help schools identify risks sooner, intervene more effectively, and make safety decisions based on evidence rather than assumptions. The authors say they want to create a prevention framework that allows educators, parents, law-enforcement agencies, and policymakers to evaluate what works and where additional resources can save lives.
They say their initial work leaves unanswered questions, but describe their publication as a first step toward building a science-based foundation for protecting students and preventing tragedies in America’s schools.